The TRUMP Ace
A lot of
analysis must have gone into the US Presidential elections and lots of data and
statistics must have got churned to reach the voter banks of each hitherto
presidential candidates. A lot of election planks and platforms must have been
created to win the elections. That shows the winning candidate must have
appealed the majority of the voters and the Electoral College and would have
covered the majority of the population in the US to secure the majority vote.
I have a
few other concerns which are largely not talked about and yet are very critical
for any democracy and the smooth functioning of its political system and the financial
markets. These are:
1.
Is
the integrity of the Federal investigation agencies intact (without going into
the criticality of the issues raised during the presidential elections) or is
it questionable?
2.
Is
the integrity of the topmost watchdog agency of the securities market intact or
is it also questionable? Perhaps to throw its weight around it made two persons
of the Asian origin scapegoats in a peculiar case of insider trading a couple
of years back. No doubt the persons might have indulged into insider trading
but was that case a mere specimen case which was discovered and/ or widely publicised?
After that the securities markets watchdog could not catch any other single or
group of individuals indulging in insider trading?
3.
Does
the topmost securities regulator have enough teeth and wherewithal to catch the
big Financial houses who give price/ rate targets three years in advance and
then ensure that those target prices are met despite all costs (costs to the
ordinary US and global citizens) or surprisingly they are so accurate that all
their predictions are accurate to the nearest dollar and fall in place?
4.
Did
the securities watchdog ever make an attempt to eavesdrop the Fed and other market
participants and could it catch some?
5.
Is
the media really free in the US or is it projected to be free in the guise of freedom
granted to social media? Or that both operate in different domains and the
social media (aka masses) doesn’t even get a whiff of what happens in the
bigger influential circles? Or if the likes of what occurred during the
presidential elections (referring to the comments of the investigating agency)
was something which was a bolt out of the blue and got overshadowed by the
hustle and bustle of the Presidential elections.
May be
with the newly elected Prez, the America is on the harbinger of a renewed
change for the general goodness of the global economy from a holistic view point
and not just for the world’s biggest economy.
Being MODI fied
Back on
the home turf, the economy and the markets got a double whammy of the outcome
of the US Presidential elections and consequential reactions by the global
stock markets as well as the adoption of new currency notes.
At the stroke
of 8 pm (a famous IMFL), it looked as if the country got paralysed as the intoxicated
life blood of the economy got flushed out in a gush and the ensuing process of
transfusion of fresh blood in the due course of time would create some
troubles, weaknesses and also perhaps paralysis for a limited period of time.
Nonetheless the fresh blood in the long run, will heal the economy ailing with
the evils of terror and corruption and bring in pre-requisite changes for a renewed
vigour and resilience in the economy.
Generating
an expanded and larger base of the economy with the help of adoption of electronic
money and circulation of higher denomination currency notes, in my personal
opinion will lead to a rapid growth in the visible economy. This will be
revolutionary in terms of opportunities that will be available for the masses and
also the new generations entering in the business mainstream. These
opportunities will provide impetus to fresh ideation and entrepreneurial skills
through external financial assistance which should at least now be readily and
easily available from the banks and financial institutions. I also anticipate
that shrinking of the financial base will also lead to invitation of external
financing to boost infrastructure and long term projects which are the need of
the hour for the domestic economy.
And
finally my take from the entire exercise:
1.
One
must learn to read the language and the mind of the Indian Premier. The images
of new Rs.2000 notes were circulated a day or two in advance without giving the
slightest of an inkling of the imminent change in the offing. Had the images of
Rs.500 and Rs.1000 notes been circulated instead of/ alongside the images of
Rs.2000 notes there would have been a scramble for dumping the black money and
the exercise could have met a different kind of success.
2.
Such
kind of change in currency notes as and when warranted in the future should happen
regularly to keep in check the growth of the parallel economy taking into account
the comparison of lost taxes (revenues for the government) due to a thriving
parallel economy vis-à-vis the cost of issuing different currency notes.
Congratulations Mr. Donald Trump and Mr. Modi
for the new initiatives that will bring in the much wanted and desired results.
As someone has rightly said, “The markets may fail but the human beings should
not.”
My views
in my previously authored articles remain intact irrespective of whatever
recent developments might have taken place in the US and the Indian financial
markets.
DISCLAIMER:
These
extracts from my trading books are for educational purposes only. Any advice
contained therein is provided for the general information of readers and does
not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial
situation or needs and must not be construed as advice to buy, hold and sell or
otherwise deal in any kind of commodities, currencies, securities or other
investments. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information
contained therein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial
advisor.
