I was
surprised to read on net, two differently styled articles predicting two
different outcomes of strength of Indian Rupee (INR) against US Dollar (USD), authored
by the same person, on the same day in a matter of a span of three hours, obviously
quoting different sources for different views expressed in the articles leading
to confusion galore.
The
two links are given below:
First
article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-26/rare-rupee-bull-says-currency-to-gain-as-rbi-will-raise-rates
with time stamp of 8:34 a.m. this
morning
Second
article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-25/no-love-for-india-s-rupee-as-analysts-rush-to-lower-forecasts
with time stamp of 11:29 a.m. this morning
In my
opinion, the intermediate sudden weakness of Indian Rupee against USD is a
prelude to continued bearishness of USD against INR which is crystal clear on the
charts.
We also need to understand that
irrespective of the differential in the potential interest rate hikes by the
respective Central Banks on the two currencies and/ or the deficits in the trade/
current accounts of the two countries, the relative positions of the two
currencies vis-à-vis each other is a matter of critical importance to determine
their respective trends.
The
weakness that we have witnessed so far is most likely expected to end with the expiry
of the current series of F&O.
For
charts the author can be contacted at: riskadvisory@outlook.com.
DISCLAIMER:
These extracts from my trading files are for
the purpose of education only. Any advice contained therein is provided for the
general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular
person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs and must not be
construed as an advice to buy, hold and sell or otherwise deal in commodities,
currencies, indices, securities or other forms of investments. Accordingly, no
reader should act on the basis of any information contained therein without
consulting a suitably qualified financial advisor in the first place.
